Strategic Foresight

“Rural proofing” aims at ensuring that “thinking rural” becomes part of the policy design at all governance levels. Based on expert interviews and literature review, this study provides an assessment of existing rural proofing approaches, to identify their main challenges and success factors, and to put forward a number of recommendations. In addition, the research shows that rural proofing, where it has been applied, rarely succeeded if it consisted only of a checklist approach or an individual methodology. Key factor for successful implementation were: 1) the establishment of a responsible ministerial department or other governmental body for rural proofing, and 2) the existence of a solid basis for rural proofing within the legislative framework.
CoR, 2022

small urban areas are an important part of Europe’s territorial, social and economic fabric. They are centres for the provision of services of general interest and places with a good quality of life. This report looks into small urban areas and the capacities they need to manage the grand societal transitions Europe faces. This includes demographic change, the green and digital transitions, as well as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and from the war in Ukraine.
CoR, Spatial Foresight GmbH , ÖIR GmbH, 2022

In acknowledging the importance of the digital domain for an equal growth in Europe, since 2019 the CoR has been advocating for including digital cohesion as part of the traditional concept of cohesion, which currently encompasses the economic, social and territorial dimensions. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to investigate the potential evolution of digital cohesion in the future with a combination of approaches used in the foresight studies: horizon scanning, megatrends analysis, scenarios building, visioning and backcasting.
CoR, Fondazione FORMIT , Progress Consulting S.r.l, 2022

This study is a pioneer in the investigation of the state of play of digital resilience of local and regional authorities (LRAs) across the EU. A primary drawback was the lack of a definition, in the literature, of the public sector’s digital resilience. Bearing in mind that European LRAs provide a large variety of eGovernment services and that some LRAs are also responsible for services of general and/or of economic interests, the digital resilience of public authorities certainly encompasses the capacity to cope with threats affecting the provision of public services and the integrity of data. Thus, ‘digital resilience’ goes beyond the protection of ICT assets. It implies prevention and preparedness measures. If in place, it also ensures timely response and recovery actions from incidents.
CoR, 2023

This brief guide can be used as a first port of call for those navigating today’s ‘TUNA’ conditions – Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity. It is also a contribution to make strategic foresight more accessible to a larger community of policy-makers and to make anticipation a new literacy so that everyone – from public institutions to citizens – can be better prepared for the future. As the European Union finds fresh wind to sail after almost a decade of ‘polycrisis’, this Primer can help us to continue fulfilling the 'shared vision' and the 'common goals' of the European project with an eye on the horizon.
EC European Political Strategy Centre, 2017

Horizon Futures Watch is a newsletter showcasing the latest findings from foresight in the EU Framework Programme and the futures4europe.eu platform. It is aimed at a growing community of decision-makers, experts, practicioners and other people interested in foresight, R&I policy and european affairs promoting the wealth of thinking generated in the context of different projects financed through Horizon Europe as well as other foresight-related activities and exercises conducted by the European Commission. The newsletter is written by the Foresight on Demand Consortium, which provides support to the European Commission of foresight in the area of research and innovation, and is connected to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network – a network of Commission staff connecting all policy departments involved in the Horizon Europe R&I programme.
Foresight on Demand Consortium, April 2023

Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments, in order to enhance resilient policy-making, address policy makers’ needs and concerns regarding new issues, to identify business opportunities by anticipating consumer and societal needs or to prepare society for less expected or rapid changes. During the last few years, different ‘Models of Horizon Scanning’ have been developed; method-combinations have been tested and implemented. Specific ‘Horizon Scanning’ institutions have been set up in some countries. The report presents an overview of the latest developments with a view to identify good practices and draw lessons for Science, Technology and Innovation Horizon Scanning in the European Commission.
EC DGfor Research and Innovation, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation , TNO , VTT Technical Research

The aim of the Forward Look is to offer a basis for reflection on the main issues our institutions are likely to face in the short, medium, and long term. The first part will analyse how the seven global trends that were highlighted in last year’s exercise prior to the war, have evolved, and in some cases accelerated, during 2022. The second part identifies four main challenges that the EU is likely to face in the coming year: scarcity, societal pressures, weaponization, and how to maintain influence. The final part will look at how these challenges lead to tensions between four different policy objectives - austerity and cohesion, values and interests - and how these tensions will impact on the work of the European Council and the Council of the EU.
Council, 09-01-2023