Global Trends 2040: A More Contested WorldThis is the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report, which, every four years since 1997, assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040, but to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. The first section explores structural forces in four core areas: demographics, environment, economics, and technology. The second section examines how these structural forces interact and intersect with other factors to affect emerging dynamics at three levels of analysis: individuals and society, states, and the international system. Finally, the third section identifies several key uncertainties and uses these to create five future scenarios for the world in 2040.
National Intelligence Council, March 2021