Analysis of the European Commission proposal for revising the EU LULUCF RegulationUnder the European Green Deal, the European Union (EU) has committed to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 and set a more ambitious climate target of net-55% emissions reductions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Both of these ambitions rely fundamentally on the role of natural sinks from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to compensate residual emissions. But they also come at a time in which the EU’s natural sinks are in decline. Over the last decades, the EU’s net-removals have fallen from a peak of -329 Mt CO2eq in 2009 to -243 Mt CO2eq in 2019 (European Union 2021), mainly due to an increase in forest harvesting rates, including for bioenergy. Achieving the EU’s climate goals will thus require reversing this negative trend and securing a strong contribution from the land-use sector towards the EU’s climate-objectives.
Böttcher, Gores, Hennenberg et al., Institute for Applied Ecology, Jan 2022.